Data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) indicates a significant decline in milk production in Texas and Kansas during March and April this year. These states were the first to report H5N1 avian influenza infections in dairy cows.
Economist Betty Berning highlighted this anomaly at the Global Dairy Outlook Conference in Chicago this week. Typically, milk production in these states increases seasonally at this time of year. However, this spring, milk production has notably decreased, which Berning described as “unusual.”
She pointed to the widespread avian influenza as a likely key factor: “It’s certainly possible that this is playing a significant role.”
The USDA first reported avian influenza cases in dairy cows in Texas on March 25. In March, milk production in Texas fell by 4.9%, significantly higher than the national average decline of 0.5% during the same period.
Impact of Avian Influenza on U.S. Milk Production
Previously, the U.S. government emphasized that while avian influenza is spreading among cattle, its overall impact on milk production was expected to be limited. They noted that dairy cows and poultry differ significantly; many poultry are culled to prevent virus spread, while many dairy cows can recover from the illness.
However, Wyoming veterinarian Hallie Hasel expressed concern:
“The most worrying aspect of this virus is its link to reduced milk production.”
The immediate impact of decreased milk production is a drop in farm income. A recent study by Michigan State University assessed the economic impact of avian influenza on dairy cow productivity. The study monitored an infected herd at a Michigan dairy farm.
The statistics showed that in the first nine days of infection, the infected herd’s daily milk production decreased by approximately 5 pounds per cow. By the 12th day of infection, the production had dropped by 21 pounds per cow compared to normal levels. Assuming a milk price of $20.50 per hundredweight, this equates to a loss of about $4.31 per cow per day.
**Potential Wider Spread of Avian Influenza Among U.S. Dairy Herds**
Data indicates that H5N1 has been spreading among U.S. dairy herds since at least the end of last year. Due to insufficient testing and tracking, the actual extent of the virus’s spread among animals and humans remains unknown.
To date, the U.S. has reported H5N1 infections in 102 dairy farms nationwide. However, given the FDA’s findings of significant inactivated virus residues in commercially sold pasteurized milk, experts believe the actual number of infections among U.S. dairy cows could be higher.
A nationwide survey conducted in May revealed that the FDA found avian influenza virus residues in 20% of pasteurized milk samples, indicating widespread transmission of the virus within the U.S. livestock industry.
